In fact, an IS laptop captured in 2014 reportedly contained a manual for making biological toxins, including a strain of plague. And producing biological toxins, scientists say, is also no longer very hard to do given today’s technology, the available information online and the accessibility of strain cultures.
Counterterrorism specialists have long anticipated some group trying this. Besides, for the purposes of terror, something short of a complete weapon, such as a “dirty bomb” - radioactive material mixed into conventional explosives - would serve the IS’s purposes just fine. Though there are no known instances of actual nuclear weapons missing, intelligence officers are trained to worry about what they don’t know. The International Atomic Energy Agency maintains a database that shows more than 2,000 confirmed reports of illicit trafficking in nuclear and other radioactive materials between 19. Tons of nuclear explosive material are in the offing, scattered around the world in less-than-secure installations. The IS is wealthier than any previous independent terrorist group, and money talks in the black market for illicit goods. How hard would it be for the IS to obtain what it needs for unconventional weapons? More difficult than its other weaponry but by no means impossible. Source Bryan Denton/The New York Times / Redux Since the spring, the Islamic State group has used two types of chemical weapons in Iraq and Syria multiple times, according to international arms analysts, victims, local activists and Western officials. Her father now spends much of his day in bed, coughing.
Shadad carries the scars from a chemical weapon attack on her home in Marea, Syria. But the IS seems to want nothing more than to pull us into direct confrontation, on the theory that it could draw coalition blood and hasten the violent final confrontation with “infidels” that its bizarre theology predicts and seeks. And when it comes to unconventional weapons, even terrorist groups that have sought them may have hesitated because of the certainty that using such weapons would draw sharper retaliation from the U.S. The IS seems to have no qualms about killing Muslims. Al-Qaida leadership in the middle of the last decade scolded the IS predecessor, al-Qaida in Iraq, for killing too many Muslims. A startling new means of attack that produced even greater and more horrible casualties would serve the same purposes - and at a much more dramatic level.Īnother reason for concern stems from the fact that the group operates with fewer restraints than any other terrorists we’ve encountered since 9/11. Its increased attacks outside the Middle East serve to keep its image of invulnerability, impress potential recruits and divide our resources. These ops haven’t turned the tide yet, but the IS is probably experiencing at least some jitters, if not outright desperation. There are at least two reasons to worry that the IS would consider this route. First, while it remains strong and still draws recruits, its territorial losses have begun to mount, due to coalition bombing and ground operations by the Kurds in Northern Iraq and Syria and by Iraqi forces operating near Baghdad. Were the IS to acquire and use unconventional weapons on a broader scale or branch out into biological agents or nukes, it would, of course, be a real game changer.Ĭounterterrorism specialists have long anticipated some group trying this. It’s unclear whether the IS was able to manufacture the agent or whether they grabbed Syrian agent at some point. military reports, which show that the IS twice used a chemical agent called sulfur mustard - once against Kurdish forces and another time against rival rebel groups in August. As much as we should resist mongering fear, it behooves us to imagine what surprises are yet to come and whether the IS could take it up yet another notch. The IS has delivered one after another with wanton brutality, from dramatic, border-busting early successes to urban conquests and the attacks it has planned or inspired around the world.
When it comes to the intelligence profession, surprise is the ultimate enemy - and surprise just happens to be the Islamic State’s specialty. The author, deputy director and acting director of the CIA from 2000 to 2004, teaches at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.